ITS CRUCIAL THAT I CREATE A MORE SIMPLIFIED DAY TO DAY ENTRY SYSTEM, BASED ON TREND FOLLOWING SYSTEMS FOR TOMORROWS TRADING SESSION.

THIS WILL BE CREATED, SO THAT WHEN I WAKE UP IN THE MORNING, AND I AM SIMPLY JUST FOLLOWING PRICE ACTION, I WILL HAVE SOME SEMBLENCE ON THE EXACT CONTEXT THAT THE MARKET IS TRADING IN, AND WHERE EXACTLY THE BROKEN SLOT MACHINE IS, IN ORDER TO CAPTURE DAY TO DAY EASY MONEY SETUPS. 

SO WHAT I HAVE TO DO, IS ESTABLISH THE TIMEFRAME IN WHICH THE TREND IS MOST SUBSTANCIAL, COUPLED WITH THE TIMEFRAME ENTRY THAT SHOULD BE PROVIDED IN ORDER TO ENTER, SIMPLY FOR THE PROCESS OF STACKING BASE HITS.

WE CAN DO THIS ALONGSIDE OUR MACRO ANALYSIS, TO ENSURE MORE CONFIRMATION WITH OUR ENTRIES. 

THIS WILL BE OUR MAJOR PRIORITY WHEN WE WAKEUP IN THE MORNING. 

Based on your detailed notes, here are the key things you should monitor in price action moving forward:

1. Yearly Fibonacci Levels and Liquidity Draws

• 50% Level Failure: The failure at the 50% yearly Fibonacci retracement is crucial. This has set up the potential for further downside, with liquidity draws being targeted below the prior long positions at the 50% level. The first downside liquidity draw target is around 19140.

• 61.8% Target: Your main target for the current downtrend is the 61.8% retracement level, which aligns with the 18670.50 level on /MNQ. This is your downside target, and you should continue monitoring for this level to be hit or for a reversal to occur around it.

2. Market Manipulation and Liquidity Grabs

• Stop Loss Hunts: You’ve identified key levels where stop losses are likely being swept (e.g., 19140), and this may be setting up a potential reversal. If the market continues to take out liquidity below the lows, keep an eye on price behavior at these levels for potential reversal points.

• Open Gaps and Market Open Dynamics: The market’s behavior around open gaps and the first minute of the trading session is a strong indicator. As you mentioned, the gap from the prior Friday’s close and the swift fill of the gap on the open was a sign of continued weakness. These types of movements will be critical to watch.

3. 3-Day Bullish Orderblock

• 3-Day Bullish Orderblock at 19140: This has acted as a key level for a potential market reversal. The price action around this level suggests that this could be the market bottom or a key reversal area. You need to monitor whether the market respects this level going forward and if a bullish trend shift occurs from here.

• Watch for bullish variations and 1-minute bullish entries from this orderblock, as you identified it as being a strong point of support.

4. Potential Quarterly Closing Dynamics

• As we are approaching the end of the quarter, the quarterly low and market behavior around it are important. The price action is trading well below the prior quarter’s low, so it’s critical to assess whether a potential quarterly close back above the low could signal a market shift or reversal.

• Watch the OptX candle for any potential gap or imbalance that could indicate further directional movement.

5. 5-Minute and 1-Minute Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

• You’ve noted the failure of the first bullish 5-minute FVG entry and how that led to your short position. Keep monitoring FVGs on the 1-minute and 5-minute charts for future entries, as these have been a reliable signal in your setups.

• Downside Displacement and Silver Bullet Entries: You observed that the downside displacement on the 5-minute chart at 9:54 AM provided a solid entry. Similarly, the 3-minute bullish silver bullet entry at 10:26 AM also showed promise. These quick entries could be critical to catch during volatility.

6. Bullish Divergence between /MNQ and /MES

• You’ve noted a bullish SMT divergence between /MNQ and /MES. This is something you should continue tracking, as it may indicate that the broader market could turn bullish while /MNQ exhibits more bearish tendencies. Keep an eye on the relative strength or weakness between these two instruments.

7. Time of Day Considerations

• As highlighted, you were able to catch opportunities in the 9:30 AM NY session post-data. Moving forward, ensure that you are taking note of key data releases (e.g., Chicago PMI) and waiting for the market to settle post-data before entering.

• Midday Session: You could also monitor for secondary setups, especially as price action unfolds and market sentiment stabilizes after the initial rush from the open.

8. High-Probability Entries

• Missing Entries: As you’ve noted, missing entries by just a few ticks can have a significant impact on your risk-reward potential. Be mindful of waiting for confirmed signals before entering and avoid chasing price.

• Reversal Confirmation: When you are stopped out of a trade, especially in volatile conditions like today, it’s essential to quickly reassess the market for a potential reversal trade.

9. Key Levels to Monitor

• 19140: The level you mentioned as a potential target for downside liquidity draw and where reversal could occur.

• 19518.50: This is the bearish FVG confluence level that you highlighted as a potential level for upside draw. Watch for price reaching this level and consider potential short opportunities around it.

• OptX Candle (20536.75): Although this is far from current price action, keep this level in mind as a long-term target that may signal a sharp market reversal.

By focusing on these levels and price action cues, you can stay more aligned with the current market structure and adapt to any shifts that occur. Your overall thesis seems to be targeting downside liquidity draws, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the quarterly close dynamics being key areas to focus on.

Key Takeaways from Today's Trading Notes:

1. Market Context & Anticipation:

   • Gap Down Opening: The week opened with a gap down, and the price quickly filled this gap, signaling continued weakness.

   • Weakness Confirmation: The failure of the 50% yearly Fibonacci and the lack of bullish signals supported a bearish outlook. A significant drawdown was anticipated, targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci level for /MNQ at 18670.50.

   • Draw on Liquidity: The first target was to run the stop losses below the first 50% retracement test, which were anticipated to provide the initial downside liquidity.

2. Trade Entry & Missed Opportunity:

   • A limit order short was placed based on a 5-minute downside displacement and 1-minute Fair Value Gap (FVG) entry but was missed by only 0.25 ticks, causing frustration as the price moved down over 100 points afterward.

   • Patience with Trade Setup: Despite the missed entry, the trade setup was valid, with a lower draw on liquidity target at 19140, which was expected to be hit before the NY session.

3. Trade Execution on March 31:

   • Triggered Short Entry: The short trade was finally triggered, based on the bearish displacement FVG that wasn't tapped into during the overnight session.

   • Partial Target: First partial was taken off at the newly established low of the day at 18976.75, achieving a 5.26R trade, with the extended target for 10.20R.

   • Quarterly Chart Reflection: The prior quarterly low had been breached, signaling the market's bearishness. However, there was potential for a larger reversal due to the OptX candle and the 3-day bullish order block identified.

4. Losses & Missed Context:

   • Stopout: The trade was stopped out, which was identified in hindsight as a manipulation stop hunt before a continuation lower.

   • Liquidity Draw & Reversal: The initial target at 19140 was already hit, and the reversal came from a 3-day bullish order block level, signaling possible strength in the market.

   • Bullish Divergence: A bullish divergence was noticed between /MNQ and /MES, which further indicated that the market could potentially shift to a bullish phase.

   • Tracking Higher Timeframes: The 3-day chart now needed to be tracked more carefully, as the market may have shifted to a bullish trend with the bullish order block.

5. Key Observations & Learnings:

   • Choppy Market: The market was hard to read, with price moving both ways. Even more experienced traders faced losses, suggesting the market conditions were difficult.

   • Risk/Reward Reflection: The trade was still valid, even with the loss, as the potential for a 5.26R or 10.20R trade was high.

   • Lessons on Trade Timing: The highest probability entry was the missed trade in the overnight session. The 9:30 AM New York session had an entry opportunity that was too late to capitalize on.

   • Future Consideration: The next moves should consider the bullish context created by the 3-day bullish order block and monitor for any high timeframe resistance before further bearish action.

Sunday March 30th, 2025

8:01PM: The new week opened on a gap down from the friday close at 19362.25 and opened at 19317.75, but on the first minute of open, price spiked to fill the entire gap on the week, and display continued weakness in price. And the reason why I anticipate further weakness in price to start this weeks opening candle, is because on friday the 50% yearly fibonacci failed, being that the 5 minute bullish variation failed which was the consisent entry for the last 2-3 taps of the 50% level. But also because, there was no long signal to enter on /MNQ from the 2 hour trend shift, with a first presented 5 minute fair value gap silver bullet entry. and as it currently stands, the current 2 hour candle high is now below the 50% mark, which also is a sign of further weakness. So for this reason, I am targeting the first downside draw on liquidity, which is the stoplosses sitting below the longs that are involved in the market off of the first 50% retracement test. I am anticipating those stoplosses to get ran, to run liquidity, and potentially even head for the next fibonacci level at the 61.8%. From QQQ that is the 450 price point, and from /MNQ that is 18670.50 which is significantly lower prices from here. So its looking like some real bloodshed is about to hit the market. But when there is panic, there is opportunity. So we will be patient, try to capture as much of this downside as we can, and wait for some bug players to reverse the market for a yearly bottom if we can find it. 

I did have a limit order short entry at the first 5 minute downside displacement & 1 min FVG entry, but I literally missed the downside entry trigger by a .25 tick. And since I have missed the entry, the price has fallen over 100 points, and swept the downside lows which is signaling a likelihood that I missed the entry. But for now, I will simply leave the limit order and the stoploss at the respective high, with position sized for a very wide stoploss. As of right now, we are around 45 points away from the first initial target and draw on liquidity that I had at 19140. I assume they will be swept before the 9:30 NY trading session tomorrow. 

Monday March 31st, 2025

1:04PM: I finally got triggered into a short trade, from the displacement bearish fair value gap that never got tapped into lastnight. I remained completely patient on this trade, without chasing at all, getting my entry missed by a single .25 tick, and being about 10 minutes into the trade right now, it seems the trade is beginning to work. I still have a lower draw on liquidity level target, with my main target being the 61.8% retracement level of the prior year candle on /MNQ, with my first partial being taken off at the newly created low of day established at 18976.75, so this would be a very high reward trade, at first partials being a 5.26R if hit, and extended targets being a 10.20R, so very very good risk to reward on this trade here for a lower draw on liquidity.

I will also add, that when analyzing the /MNQ Quarterly chart about a week to 2 weeks ago, I played a scenario in my head, where the prior quarterly low candles sell side liquidty would be swept, with the potential scenario of a closure back above the quarterly low, to set up next quarters bullish candle. But as it currently stands, we are trading far below the prior quarterly low at 19818, about 600 points below, and this is the final day of the quarter before the next candle opens. 

I have taken note, that the OptX candle did create a downside displacement fair value gap, at the 20536.75 level. So this will be crucial with analysis of future price action, being that it will either act as an inverse with a rip back to all time highs, or that it will act as a major retracement level in the markets for a continuation downside dump, with that being said, the level is very far away for that massive of an imbalance in the markets, but what I take from it is that we should expect a big rip back up in markets sometime in the future. The next OptX candle will also be opening tomorrow for the start of April alongside the new Qr candle. 

So for now, I am in this swing trade. And we will see how it plays out.

2:12PM. I have been officially stopped out of the trade. And that will be the only loss that I take on the day. Will review after 5:00PM to see exactly why this trade didnt work. 

2:57. So this trade will obviously in hindsight be a manipulation stophunt for a continuation lower (which is my current thesis) or it will be a spot where the market has finally decided to reverse. As of right now, todays market bottom is coming from a 3D bullish orderblock level from September 4th, 2024. So the level was very far back in price action, Im not yet sure how relevant it is. But we will once again be waiting for the end of the day to try to understand the draw for price.

I think one thing that I can take from this trade, is that prior to me missing the first initial entry before I attempted to trade the retest here. My first draw on liquidity target, had I been triggered into the trade, would have been the first sell side stoploss sweep from the first long position taken off of the yearly 50% retracement, and that draw on liquidity target was already reached, before I was recently triggered into the trade short. But at the same time, I did have an ultimately lower price target at the 61.8% retracement, so I figured that upon entering my short trade, that I would at least be able to get back to LOD. But it turns out that the 19140 level is now acting as a liquidity grab level for the potential move higher. So I was ultimately reversed on, because the new week opening gap was swept on the first minute of market open, and it was just broken through for a second time which does show a willingness from bulls to push price higher. I did have a level from the 12 hour, 6 hour, and 4 hour bearish fair value gap confluence level. but the market opened on a gap down, swept the liquidity within the new week opening gap, and just proceeded to dump, so I figured that it was a less likely chance for us to draw back into that liquidity pool up top at the confluence bearish fair value gap level sitting at 19518.50. But as of now, I think that is the next upside draw on liquidty for any potential reversals back down. 

The 3D bullish orderblock, worked with a simple 1 minute bullish variation entry, that also worked as a 1 minute inverse fair value gap upon the first test. So this specific level held very strong, and we are now made fully aware of the strength with 3D bullish orderblocks. 

Another thing im going to have to do, is to check the other Nasdaq charts to see where this level also could have came from, because we were essentially playing the failure of the 50% retracement on QQQ for the continuation down. But its looking like we were chopped both ways. Because QQQ is essentially bouncing from in between the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels. 

So a bit confusing on where price wants to head, or who is in control. And I have also seen on youtube that some more elite traders have also incurred some losses today. So it may just be one of those days where you ring the register. 

Had I wanted to take this trade on an EVAL or XFA, a standard 50K account with 2K drawdown, actually wouldnt have allowed me to take this trade, being that the stoploss to the highs was 62.50 points. Which is higher than usual. Might I also add, that we are going to have to start adamantly tracking the 3 day chart now, to try to understand if todays move off of the 3 day bullish orderblock will create some type of bullish variation of the current 3 day bar. There is now a chance that because of today, there may be a 3 day chart imbalance, and we cant entirely rule out that this could also be the market bottom for the quarter, and that we dont necessarily need to trade all the way to the 61.8% retracement level in order to see a macro market reversal at these levels. So thats something we will have to remain aware of. 

At minimum, if this doesnt happen to be the overall market bottom, we should at least anticipate some type of market retracement higher, before we would see any move lower, being now that our position has been reversed on both sides of the 50% retracement level on /MNQ. And like I said earlier, there will be a bearish gap created on the OptX candle. So these are all things in price that we are going to have to monitor. 

And now that we have been made aware of the 3D chart on /MNQ, I decided to pull up the 3D chart on /MES, and have now Identified that there is a 3D chart SMT bullish divergence between /MNQ and /MES. So that is a very important observation to note. Another important observation to note, is that for any bullish confirmation on /MNQ from the current 50% retracement mark, we were waiting for the 2H bullish trend shift, paired with a first presented bullish FVG 5 minute entry, which is what we saw to confirm the last rally from the 50% mark. But we disregarded any potential 2 hour trend shifts, because we identified that the high of the 2 hour candle, was trading below the 50% retracement level mark, so we figured that any shift of the 2H trend would be invalidated. But this infact wasnt the case on the day. Overall, there WAS a failure of the first attempt for a bullish 2 hour trend shift, but AFTER sell side liquidity was swept on the first initial draw on liquidity lower at the 19140 level, the first 2 hour bullish trend shift reversal attempt actually wound up working on the day. But its also important to note, that the full entry trigger still wouldnt have been initiated, being that there wasnt any retest of any first presented bullish fair value gaps on the 5 minute chart. But being caught on the short side, could have very well been a chance that I was caught in a manipulation run higher from a macro perspective.

And the fact that the bottom of todays market low, was initiated off of a former 3D bullish orderblock, we are going to have to see some type of high timeframe resistance, in order to have any chance to shift this trend back down bearish. So until provided with a higher timeframe level than a 3D chart, we are going to have to remain cautiously bullish. 

For the 9:30 new york trading session, upon reviewing this specific sessions trading opportunities, on top of the 3 day bullish FVG providing a 1 minute bullish variation entry, there was also an entry provided for the first 5 minute bullish displacement upon open. The market opened, flushed through the premarket low, and draw on liquidity at 19140, and there was a downside candle on the 5 minute chart that was displaced through at 9:54AM. and it provided a 3 minute chart bullish silver bullet entry, that was tappen into at 10:26AM. So this would have been a great trade opportunity provided after data cleared on the session at 9:45AM, which was the Chicago PMI data. Had I taken advantage of this opportunity, I would have caught around 450 points if I held the trade full run. 

So between sessions, it was my entry that would have been highest probability had it triggered in yesterdays overnight session, without missing the entry by a .25 tick, rather than me trying to catch it in the new york session at 9:30am. These are more things that I can learn from for the future.